Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Limited (ASX: GMA) today advised that it has finalised its annual review of the premium earning pattern (also known as the “earnings curve”).
The review process included a detailed evaluation and recommendation by the appointed actuary and supporting work and recommendation by independent reviewers.
The change will have the effect, in aggregate, of lengthening the average duration of the period over which Genworth recognises its revenue by approximately 12 months. It also has the effect of introducing a third separate earnings curve for business written in 2015 and later. The change however does not affect the total amount of revenue expected to be earned over time from premiums already written
The two earnings curves that comprise the previous premium earning pattern were first introduced in 2012. The last time the Board approved a change to the premium earning pattern was in September 2015, with this change applied to the financial statements in the third quarter of 2015. The Company conducted an annual review of the earnings curve in 2016 but no change was made to the curve based on the information at that time.
The modified premium earning pattern will be applied to the recognition of revenue in the income statement for the fourth quarter of 2017 and in subsequent reporting periods. The Company’s Unearned Premium Reserve (UPR) balance of $1,087 million as at 30 September 2017 remains unchanged. As was highlighted in the half year (2 August 2017) and third quarter (3 November 2017) results announcements, any change to the premium earning pattern has the potential to change the Company’s 2017 full year guidance.
The change to the premium earning pattern will negatively impact Net Earned Premium (NEP) by approximately $40 million, and as a result 2017 NEP is expected to be approximately 17 – 19 per cent lower than 2016, instead of the previous guidance of a 10 to 15 per cent reduction.
Based on preliminary estimates, the Company expects the full year loss ratio to remain between 35 and 40 per cent as the NEP reduction is expected to be partially offset by the fourth quarter incurred loss expectations, and preliminary estimates of the Outstanding Claims Reserves as at 31 December 2017 which currently reflect more favourable recent incurred loss experience.
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